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Home » Reds Beat: What The Reds Really Need To End A 31-Year Drought – A Primer and Prediction For the 2026 Reds
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Reds Beat: What The Reds Really Need To End A 31-Year Drought – A Primer and Prediction For the 2026 Reds

What needs to go right for the Reds to go far in 2026.
Mike PetragliaBy Mike Petraglia03/26/2026Updated:03/26/20267 Mins Read
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Reds second baseman Matt McLain (9), Elly De La Cruz and Dane Myers all figure to be big pieces of the 2026 Reds. (Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images)
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CINCINNATI — The time is now.

The 2026 Cincinnati Reds unveil themselves to the world today against the Boston Red Sox at Great American Ball Park. And their manager believes that in his second season it’s time to go from being happy with advancing to the postseason with a very modest 83 wins in 2025 to becoming a team that competes for a World Series.

The question is what will it take to get there?

Here’s a quick rundown of what the Reds need:

  • Consistent offensive production 1-6 in the lineup led by Elly De La Cruz:
  • The Reds’ lineup remains one of the most exciting young groups in the National League, led by De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Noelvi Marte.

  • Elly De La Cruz:
  • After a season where he finished in the top 10 of NL MVP voting in 2024 and around 20th in 2025, De La Cruz is aiming for a “huge leap” to become an MVP finalist. To maximize his upside, he has returned to the swing mechanics that helped him hit for power earlier in his career, including working on his lower body and rehabbing his quadriceps injury from 2025 that limited his mobility and lower body strength. Friedl, McLain, De La Cruz, Stewart, Suarez, Marte, Stephenson has the potential to be as dynamic and productive as the Dodgers and Yankees. The issue is consistency and health through 162 games.

  • Matt McLain:
  • Following an “injury-riddled sophomore season,” McLain’s potential return to his 2024 form could create one of the “deadliest middle-infield partnerships in baseball”. Analysts at Local 12 predict he will be the team’s “most pleasant surprise at the plate” and an All-Star in 2026.

  • Veteran Presence:
  • The return of Eugenio Suárez not only adds “much-needed power and veteran presence” to the middle of the order, it also adds what’s expected to be a strong influence on Elly De La Cruz. There have been signs this spring that De La Cruz is taking to that teaching.

  • Sal Stewart breaks out:
  • The top prospect Stewart is a favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year, thanks to his “elite bat-to-ball skills” that he demonstrated in the final four weeks of 2025.

  • Noelvi Marte puts it all together:
  • The outfielder needs to take the opportunity he’s been given in right field and run with it. He showed a glimpse of his potential in the outfield and his power and speed have never been in question. If he hits consistently and is simply solid in right field, the lineup becomes one of the elite lineups in the game.

  • Rotation Outlook: Dealing with the Greene Injury
  • The most significant hurdle for the 2026 Reds is the early-season absence of ace Hunter Greene. Greene will start the year on the injured list following a procedure to remove bone spurs from his elbow and won’t return until July. Nick Lodolo, the No. 2 starter, also starts on the injured list due to a blister on his left index finger. This means the depth will be tested. But if there’s a team that should be able to weather the storm, it’s the Reds. Assuming Andrew Abbott’s spring numbers (23 R, 28 hits, 6 HRs in 17 2/3 innings in six starts) are just a fluke and a result of the lefty working on a cutter to get more soft contact on right-handed batters, the rotation still has tons of potential, bolstered by young stars Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder. One result of the two injuries at the top is that the “six for five” idea is apparently out the window.

  • Projected Starters:
  • Chase Burns, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson, and Brady Singer.
    The Greene//Lodolo Factor: Once Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo return, the pitching figures only to get stronger. The key is to get through the injuries and hope the new offense can take some of the burden off.

  • Bullpen:
  • The real concern here is how Terry Francona will bridge the sixth and seventh innings to get to Tony Santillan and Emilio Pagan. Connor Phillips was lights out in September but struggled in spring training, same with Graham Ashcraft. Pierce Johnson could be the guy to get seventh and eighth inning reps to start the season. Brock Burke and Sam Moll should be dependable lefties in the pen. Then there’s the injured Caleb Ferguson and Kyle Nicolas, who is working through things in Triple-A after pitching for Team Italy in the WBC. Bullpens usually take a month or so to really work themselves out. No different here. Potential for real depth and versatility once everyone knows their roles.

    The 26-man roster to start the season:
    Starters (5): LHP Andrew Abbott, RHP Brady Singer, LHP Brandon Williamson, RHP Rhett Lowder, RHP Chase Burns
    Relievers (8): RHP Jose Franco, RHP Connor Phillips, RHP Graham Ashcraft, RHP Pierce Johnson, LHP Brock Burke, LHP Sam Moll, RHP Tony Santillan, RHP Emilio Pagan
    Infielders (6): Elly De La Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Matt McLain, Eugenio Saurez, Sal Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe
    Outfielders (5): Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl, Dane Myers, Noelvi Marte, Will Benson
    Catchers (2): Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino

    The Reds have a ton of talent waiting in the wings as they have built their farm system up to the point where it can provide reasonable reinforcements at win replacement levels, outfielders like JJ Bleday, Rece Hinds and super prospect Hector Rodriguez.

  • Top Prospects to watch:
  • The Reds’ farm system is currently ranked among the league’s best, headlined by Sal Stewart, who is widely considered the team’s top overall prospect for 2026. But also keep an eye on:

    Héctor Rodríguez (OF): An explosive outfielder who slashed .283 with 19 homers in the minors last year. He will likely start 2026 in Triple-A Louisville but is projected for a mid-season call-up.

    Cam Collier (INF): Collier’s 2025 campaign was defined by a bounce-back in batting average despite a power dip following early-season surgery for a torn UCL in his left thumb. He spent the majority of the season as one of the youngest players in Double-A.

    Alfredo Duno (C): The 20-year-old Florida State League MVP is the Reds’ catcher of the future. While he will likely start the year in High-A, his power and strike-zone discipline are “MLB-ready.”

  • Final Prediction:
  • We’re going to go optimistic here if only because of the vibe and expectation that Terry Francona has always seemed to mix perfectly over his 24 previous seasons as an MLB manager. If nothing else, the Reds were consistent in Francona’s first season in ’25. They never lost more than four straight. They never won more than five straight. The key is to raise the winning consistency while keeping the losing streaks in that same range. That would be the difference between winning 93 and not 83. This team is capable of going on 6-8 game win streaks. Toss in a few of those, and we’re talking about a team that should be able to contend with the Cubs, Brewers and upstart Pirates in the NL Central. A Pirates-Reds rivalry like the one we saw in 2013 wouldn’t be a bad thing for baseball.

    Team MVP: Matt McLain
    Best slugger (37 HRs, 105 RBIs): Geno Suarez
    Most stolen bases (41): Elly De La Cruz
    Most runs (100): Elly De La Cruz
    Most wins (17): Andrew Abbott
    Lowest ERA (3.19): Rhett Lowder
    Best average (.301): Matt McLain
    Most saves (36): Emilio Pagan
    Best rookie: Sal Stewart

    Record: 93-69, 1st NL Central, first round bye
    Beat Mets in NLDS
    Beat Dodgers in NLCS
    Lose to Blue Jays in World Series

    Now, time to sit back and enjoy some baseball.

    Andrew Abbott Cincinnati Reds Elly De La Cruz Emilio Pagan Gavin Lux Matt McLain Nick Lodolo Scott Barlow Spencer Steer Terry Francona TJ Friedl
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    Mike Petraglia
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    Bengals columnist and multimedia reporter since 2021. Jungle Roar Podcast Host. Reds writer. UC football, UC Xavier basketball. Joined CLNS Media in 2017. Covered Boston sports as a radio broadcaster, reporter, columnist and TV and video talent since 1993. Covered Boston Red Sox for MLB.com from 2000-2007 and the New England Patriots between 1993-2019 for ESPN Radio, WBZ-AM, SiriusXM, WEEI, WEEI.com and CLNS.

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