CINCINNATI — When will the Reds find the missing keys to their offense?
It’s the question that needs to be answered if this team is to meet the division title expectations this team had in spring training and after a 20-11 start. Could it be the keys on the counter right in front of them?
The 2026 Cincinnati Reds offense has, through the early portion of the season, been defined by a jarring combination of elite underlying potential and abysmal surface-level results. Following a highly anticipated start to the season, the unit quickly devolved into one of the least productive offenses in Major League Baseball, leaving many to wonder whether the performance is a temporary slump or a fundamental flaw in team construction. Through mid-April, the Reds found themselves at the bottom of numerous offensive categories, putting immense pressure on a starting pitching staff that has largely carried the team.
After Sunday’s 5-0 win against the Astros, the Reds sit 22-19, rebounding with two wins after an eight-game skid. But still, the Reds are dead last in MLB in team batting average at .219.
Is It finally Edwin Arroyo Time?
After missing all of 2024 with torn labrum in his left shoulder, the highly-touted infield prospect is finally reaching his potential that had him ranked as Cincinnati’s No. 3 ranked prospect in 2024, behind Noelvi Marte and Rhett Lowder. He was headed to Double-A Chattanooga before the injury. Now, two years later, he is ripping it up at Triple-A Louisville. He posted his third straight game with at least three hits, going 4-for-5 with 2 doubles and three RBIs in Saturday’s win. Arroyo this season leads the International League in hits (53), total bases (90), and triples (4). His eight games with at least three hits this year also lead all minor league batters…has hit safely in a season-high 11 straight games, tied for the third-longest run in the International League.
Ke’Bryan Hayes was batting .134 heading into Sunday’s game against Houston, prompting Barry Larkin to note on the Reds.TV telecast:
“I don’t know if you can be a team like the Reds that have had the troubles they’ve had offensively and continue to run a guy out there that has not hit better than .130,” he said.
Hayes, making $7 million this season and next and then $8 million in 2028 and ’29, is a Gold Glover at third base. But Larkin was a Hall of Famer because he not only dominated defensively but produced offensively from the No. 1 or 2 holes in the batting order. No one is asking Hayes to be a Silver Slugger but you can’t be that far below the Mendoza line and not be a true drain on the offense. Which brings up the possibility of Edwin Arroyo, tearing it up at Triple-A Louisville. Yes, the Reds don’t want to release Hayes. But they also would like to avoid sending McLain back to Triple-A. Last year, they decided against it all season. Don’t know if McLain gets that leash this season.
“(Hayes is) great defensively but certainly you’ve got to contribute on the offensive end,” Larkin added. “There are players down in the minor leagues that are tearing it up. Is this team going to make a move to get some of these guys up here in the lineup?”
“I don’t know if you can be a team like the Reds that have had the troubles they’ve had offensively and continue to run a guy out there that has not hit better than .130.”
– Barry Larkin on Ke’Bryan Hayes pic.twitter.com/eNsFhto3kq
— Reds Daily (@RedsDaily4) May 10, 2026
It’s not just Hayes. Noelvi Marte was batting .138 and now is red-hot in Louisville. Rece Hinds earned his promotion with great Triple-A numbers but was batting just .121 before his recent demotion. Jose Trevino is batting .125. TJ Friedl was benched in favor of Will Benson Sunday. Not only is Friedl’s average down (.185) but is on-base is only .267. Tyler Stephenson is batting just .192 and Matt McLain is just above the Mendoza line at .204. And Will Benson is at .194. That’s a lot stick figure batting and not sustainable without major changes eventually taking place.
Skipper Terry Francona doesn’t like to play “Lineup Bingo” but at some point you have to shake up the ping pong balls, otherwise you get a Reds batting order 6-9 hitting a Major League-low .192. That’s unacceptable on any level.
Batting Average, #6-#9 Hitters:
.300 LAD 😮
.268 CHC
.258 ATL
.253 ARI
.251 TOR
.246 KC
.245 COL
.244 PIT HOU
.238 BOS
.237 WSH
.234 CWS SF
.233 TB BAL
.232 LAA
.231 CLE
.229 NYM ATH
.228 NYY TEX
.227 MIA
.224 MIN
.223 PHI
.220 SD DET
.218 SEA
.217 STL
.208 MIL
.192 CIN— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 10, 2026
The Reds were criticized for waiting as long as they did with Sal Stewart last year, not calling him up until Labor Day, but still making him eligible for the postseason roster. Don’t expect them to make the same decision with Arroyo if the offense continues to flail like it is.
The struggles are comprehensive:
On-Base Percentage: 25th in MLB (.305)
Batting Average: 30th in MLB (.219)
OPS: 27th in MLB (.686)
This has been the ultimate case of feast or famine with a significant preponderance of famine. They have struggled heavily with runners in scoring position.
Unlucky or Underperforming?
Despite the abysmal stats, there is a counter-argument that the Reds have been largely “unlucky” rather than devoid of talent. Underlying metrics suggest that the team should be performing closer to league average. For example, xwOBA (expected weighted On-Base Average) suggests the hitters are creating better contact than their results show. Spencer Steer has been hitting line drives more consistently and his average has risen 25 points in the last two weeks. JJ Bleday has given the Reds a boost in the No. 2 hole and has been a boost at the top of the lineup.
Key players have been hitting the ball hard without reward. Stephenson, for instance, showed elite average exit velocity in the early going—good enough to rank in the top tier of baseball if he qualified. Similarly, McLain has walked more and struck out less than his previous seasons, yet his batting average has remained surprisingly low. This disparity indicates that positive regression is possible, as it seems unlikely that experienced hitters like TJ Friedl and McLain will remain under the .200 mark for an extended period.
The “Famine” Factors: Approach and Structure
The Reds are hitting home runs and there is some merit to having power to erase some – not all – deficiencies in the batting approach. Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz lead the Reds 10 homers apiece. Spencer Steer has seven, giving that trio more than half of the club’s 53 home runs this season. The Reds should be taking advantage of one of the more hitter-friendly ball parks in baseball, and maybe when the weather heats up, they will.
But the inability to produce against quality starting pitching — highlighted by struggles against Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes – has highlighted the gap between the Reds and top-tier NL Central competition.
Will Benson, who led off Sunday, has shown improvement in taking better at-bats, showing potential to be a key contributor despite being primarily used against right-handed pitching. Matt McLain, despite his slow start, has shown the ability to provide clutch hits in tight games.
Meanwhile, speaking of prospects, Louisville left fielder Héctor Rodríguez hit a two-run, 450-foot homer in the 1st inning Saturday, his sixth HR of 2026. Noelvi Marte has gone back to work and is slashing .375/.444./.989 with three home runs since his demotion on April 13.
As veterans have struggled, fans and analysts alike have debated the merit of promoting prospects like Arroyo to inject life into the offense. There is a desire to see more power and consistent plate discipline from the farm system to support the pitching staff, which has shown it can hold opponents to low totals, such as in the 2-1 wins against Texas and San Francisco, the 2-0 win over the Pirates and the 3-1 win over the Astros on Saturday.
A Critical Turning Point:
Just 41 games in, the 2026 Reds offense is at a crossroads. The team has shown that it can win when the pitching and defense are firing, but they cannot win consistently without scoring more than three runs. The early-season offensive woes have prompted discussions about potential changes in philosophy, lineup adjustments, and even the possibility of pursuing upgrades at the trade deadline. The success of the 2026 season still hinges on whether Steer, McLain, Stephenson and a healthy Eugenio Suarez can complement De La Cruz and Stewart, and whether others like Stephenson can turn their high-quality contact into tangible results. While the current, league-worst statistics are alarming, the underlying advanced metrics suggest that the 2026 Reds offense still has the capacity to be much better. Whether that transformation occurs is the key question. One thing is certain, the Reds are not likely to stand still and be as patient this season.
