CINCINNATI — At 50-47, the Reds are in the thick of the National League Wild Card race. This is the third time in the last five seasons, believe it or not, that the Reds have a winning record at the All-Star Break.
Despite all the frustration directed towards the front office, and some towards manager Terry Francona, the Reds front office got it right in hiring the two-time World Series-winning and three-time pennant-winning manager. On Sunday, Francona became the 13th manager in Major League Baseball history to win 2,000 games. That proves, among other things, that having a Hall of Fame manager leading this Reds club has been a difference-maker.
Think of where this club was on June 3rd, after losing to the Milwaukee Brewers 9-1 to fall to 30-33. It was another series loss to the Brewers, and the Reds were in the middle of a tough 39-game stretch from late May to early July. Since then, the Reds are 20-14 in their last 34 games.
In that stretch, the Reds have played 11 series. They won seven of those series, including series over the Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, and San Diego Padres. All of those teams are expected to contend for a Postseason berth in the second half of the regular season.
It’s been Francona’s steady leadership and experience that have gotten the Reds into a favorable position at the All-Star Break. Let’s look at where each of Francona’s three pennant-winning teams were at the All-Star Break and what their record was at the end of the regular season.
2004: Record at All-Star Break — 48-38 Final Record — 98-64
2007: Record at All-Star Break — 53-34 Final Record — 96-66
2016: Record at All-Star Break — 52-36 Final Record — 94-67
In those three seasons, Francona’s teams averaged 45 wins after the All-Star Break. If the Reds win 45 games after the All-Star Break this season, that would put them at 95 wins. That should be more than enough to win one of the three National League Wild Cards and maybe the National League Central.
Mike Petraglia said on the Code Reds Podcast before the season started that he thought this team could win 90 games. I concurred on that belief, and this Reds club has shown what they’re capable of when they’re clicking.
I’m optimistic about this #Reds team.
My SEASON RECORD PREDICTION:
90-72, 2nd NL Wild Card
Let’s do this!
— Alex Frank (@frankie_nnati) March 27, 2025
They haven’t played their best baseball yet this season, but they’ve played well enough to offer hope that they could do that in the second half of the regular season. The Reds played winning baseball over their last 34 games leading into the Break this week. This team has some versatility, and they’re well-rounded when playing at their best.
The straw that stirs this Reds drink is Francona. He’s been there before. He knows how to manage a team through a Pennant Race. At Boston and Cleveland, his teams made the Postseason in his first season with those respective clubs. Having a manager of the caliber of Francona, who’s been there before, can help this Reds team vault into contention.
There were some frustrating losses and stretches through the first 97 games this season, but nothing is won in the first three-and-a-half months of the season. Given Francona’s second-half success with Boston and Cleveland, there is hope that the same kind of success can be had by this Reds club in the second half this season.
Now, let’s hand out some first-half awards and look ahead to the Pennant Race.
Reds Team MVP: Elly De La Cruz
No questions here. De La Cruz keeps ascending in the third season of his career. Through 97 games, De La Cruz is hitting .284 with 18 home runs and 63 RBIs. He also has 25 stolen bases, 42 walks, 105 hits, and 72 runs scored. His plate discipline has improved this season, as evidenced by his nine-pitch at-bat that ignited the Reds ninth-inning rally against the San Diego Padres on June 29th.
De La Cruz was named an NL All-Star for the second straight season, and hopefully, he gets to showcase his game on the Postseason stage for the first time in his career this season.
Reds Team Rising Star: Andrew Abbott
The Reds other All-Star this season has risen to ace status this season, going into Atlanta with an 8-1 record and a 2.07 ERA. In 16 starts, Abbott has 83 strikeouts and 24 walks. The highlight of his first half was a complete game shutout on June 10th at Cleveland.
Abbott started the season on the injured list, but he made a difference in the Reds rotation from his first start of the season in Baltimore to his final start of the first half against Miami. With Hunter Greene going to the injured list multiple times in the first half, Abbott stepped up and became this team’s ace. The fact that he’s a left-hander helps, as he has held opposing hitters to a .219 average against him through his first 16 starts.
Reds Biggest Surprise: Emilio Pagan, Scott Barlow, and Gavin Lux
I chose three players for this award because all of them have surprised in different ways.
Pagan has become a reliable closer, inducing confidence that when he comes out of the bullpen for the ninth inning that he’s going to close the deal. He converted 20 of 23 saves through the first half of the season, locking down the closer role full-time. Pagan has a 2.93 ERA with 50 strikeouts against just 13 walks in 40 games and 40 innings.
Barlow has become a right-handed specialist coming out of the bullpen in the middle and seventh innings. In 46 games and 42 2/3 innings, Barlow is 3-0 with a 3.80 ERA and 46 strikeouts against just 26 walks. He’s come into games and inherited major jams at critical junctures of the game, and he’s found a way to get out of them.
Lux was a free agent signing this past offseason, and it has felt like he has been at the center of key rallies in games through the first half of the season. His best moment was a walk-off hit against the New York Yankees on June 24th. In total, he’s hitting a solid .265 with four home runs and 37 RBIs, as well as 72 hits, 17 doubles, and a triple.
Reds Biggest X-Factor: Spencer Steer
When Steer has been on, the Reds offense has been better because of him. After struggling through the first couple of months, Steer has been really consistent over the past month-plus. He’s now hitting .251 with 11 home runs and 39 RBIs, and he also has 66 hits, 10 doubles, and 45 runs scored.
Reds Key Player for the Pennant Race: Matt McLain
It was not a great first half for the Reds second baseman, but he did show signs of improvement in the second half of the season. Keep in mind that when the season started, McLain hadn’t played in a Major League game since August of 2023. That’s a long time away from the game, and that’s on top of going through a major shoulder injury just as his Major League career was beginning. Hopefully, a few days away from the everyday grind of the season can reset McLain, and he can show signs similar to his rookie season in 2023 in the second half this season.
Reds Biggest X-Factor for the Pennant Race: TJ Friedl, Nick Lodolo
I went with one position player and a starting pitcher for this category.
Friedl had a strong first half of the season, hitting .276 with 97 hits, nine home runs, and 33 RBIs. He also stole 10 bases and scored 55 runs. His ability to set the table at the top of the lineup, getting on base and stealing bases, is going to be key for the Reds offense to have a strong and consistent second half. The lineup is going to have to score runs to win one of the three NL Wild Cards.
Lodolo is a former Reds first-round draft pick, and he has settled into more of a role as a really good middle-of-the-rotation starter. If he can pitch into the sixth inning consistently and keep his walk total low in each start, the Reds pitching rotation is going to be really good through the final 65 games.
