Reds Beat: A Spring Training Primer As Reds Begin To Answer Key Questions for 2024, Jonathan India Avoids Arbitration

CINCINNATI — As the equipment truck makes the 1,823-mile trek from Great American Ball Park to Goodyear, Arizona to get in place for pitchers and catchers reporting on Wednesday, there are a list of key questions to be answered this spring in the desert.

The Reds will have their first workout for pitchers and catchers on Wednesday, Feb. 14, with their first full-squad workout on Monday, Feb. 19.

The Reds announced late Friday afternoon that they have reached agreement with Jonathan India on a two-year contract, avoiding arbitration. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports India will earn $3.8 million in 2024 and $5 million in 2025, with escalators in 2025 based on plate appearances or games started that can earn him an added $2.05 million.

With that business out of the way, the Reds and manager David Bell, entering his sixth season at the helm, can focus on the many other issues heading into spring training, including:

What is the health of Nick Lodolo?

The status of the Reds as true contenders in the NL Central begins with the health and production of their starting rotation. When healthy, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson have all proven they can be dependable Major League starters. Then there’s Nick Lodolo. When the lefty is out there, his stuff is as diverse and effective as any in the rotation. He has a refined mix. But last year was a washout with a stress reaction in his left tibia that never really healed. Lodolo, still only 25, went 2-1 with a 6.29 ERA. He was 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his first three starts, and 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA over his last four. So much hinges on Lodolo this season, and no one has more to prove in camp than the third-year lefty.

How will the bullpen shape up?

Spring training can answer many questions. But nowhere are those answers more relevant than in solving the bullpen formula. Spring training games are used to stretch the arms of starters to get them ready for the season. For the relievers who work in much shorter bursts, the games are a good proving ground for what the real games will be like in terms of pitch mixes and chemistry with the catchers. The Reds bullpen struggled in the first month of 2023 before hitting a groove in the middle part of the season. That just so happened to coincide with the team’s rise to the top of the NL Central. The Reds know they have a closer in Alexis Diaz. They know – in newly acquired Brent Suter – they have a solid situational lefty who could prove to be more. Spring training should help get familiar names like Lucas Sims, Buck Farmer, Ian Gibaut, Reiver Sanmartin, Nick Martinez, Sam Moll, Emilio Pagan and Brent Suter ready for the season. The Reds finally have a quality pool of 12 candidates to battle for the roughly eight spots in the pen to start the season. That is the sign of a true contender.

Is Noelvi Marte the every day starting third baseman?

MLB.com lists the 22-year-old Dominican as best impact prospect in the organization. That’s saying something with names like Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the same conversation. Marte did nothing to dispel that notion slashing .316/.366/.822 in 35 games at the end of last season, hitting three homers, driving in 15 runs and stealing six bases. He was the last of the super prospects recalled, and he might wind up being the best. He did commit five errors in 68 chances at third base while helping to turn nine double plays.

What to do with Elly De La Cruz?

For as dynamic a force as he was when he was called up in June last year, De La Cruz will be asked to make a critical leap if he is going to be an integral part of a roster that projects to compete for the 2024 NL Central title. Perhaps no one on the roster needs spring training more than De La Cruz to work on the details of his game and his approach at the plate. De La Cruz did show at moments last season to have a surprisingly mature knowledge of the strike zone but he must refine it even more if he’s going to be the dynamo on the bases he proved to be last season. Will De La Cruz get reps in the outfield this spring? Can’t see how that would be a bad idea. The decision is between keeping him at short and living with the growing pains as he refines his footwork and his addressing of the ball or giving De La Cruz some reps at reading fly balls in center and developing a rapport with potential corner outfielders Jake Fraley, Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl and Will Benson.

Is Matt McLain the everyday second baseman or shortstop?

Along with Marte, he is considered the most impactful of the young Reds prospects, and the most mature. There’s no doubt he’s going to be in Bell’s lineup practically every day. The question is where? He’s the best shortstop on the roster. But he’s also a terrific option at second base if Bell decides to keep De La Cruz at shortstop.

How will Jonathan India fit in as the team leader?

There was always the possibility throughout the offseason that India would be on some other team’s roster to start the 2024 season. And while that possibility through a trade still exists, it appears the Reds would rather have him in their clubhouse than not. And on Friday, they announced they avoided arbitration and came to terms on a two-year contract extension. When he arrived on the scene in 2021, he was the projected second baseman of the future. That is, until Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte arrived. Now there’s a logjam. He is one of the most popular and hard-working players on the roster. He’s handled everything swirling around him without drama. His offensive production dropped off in 2022 and he again started slow last year before warming up. He could be a long-term solution as the DH or maybe he gets a shot in the outfield if the Reds decided to leave De La Cruz in the infield.

Tyler Stephenson is the catcher:

His injury-riddled 2022 led many to speculate inside and outside the organization that perhaps Stephenson is not the long-term answer behind the plate. But after doing a solid job handling the staff in ’23 and the emergence of Encarnacion-Strand and Steer at first base, it’s more apparent than ever that Stephenson’s future is indeed as catcher. Certainly we could see him at first base in spot duty in the spring and he obviously could slide into some DH role but for now, Stephenson figures to catch at least three of the five days of the rotation, and maybe four if his offense holds up. The Reds would like to see a bump from his 13 homers, 56 RBIs and .243/.317/.695 slash line of 2023, 30-to-50 points below his career averages.

Will David Bell choose to go with a platoon-centric lineup?

This question will likely be better answered once the actual season begins. But there’s a lot to determine in terms of who fits into which positions the best. That will then serve as a guide for Bell to decide if he wants to go with a traditional regular lineup at most positions or go with the trend in analytics, which is to have a lineup that best matches up against the opposing pitcher that night. The Reds have their most versatile roster in Bell’s six seasons in Cincinnati. Bell has demonstrated over his previous five seasons that one of his strengths lies in the way he makes the most of his options through the course of a game and the season.

To wit, my first 26-man Opening Day roster projection for 2024:

Regulars (9):

C: Tyler Stephenson
1B: Christian Encarnacion-Strand
2B: Matt McLain
SS: Elly De La Cruz
3B: Noelvi Marte
LF: Spencer Steer
CF: TJ Friedl
RF: Jake Fraley
DH: Jonathan India

Bench (4):

C Luke Maile
INF Jeimer Candelario
OF Will Benson
OF Stuart Fairchild

Starters (5):

RHP Hunter Greene
LHP Nick Lodolo
RHP Graham Ashcraft
LHP Andrew Abbott
LHP Brandon Williamson

Relievers (8):

RHP Frankie Montas
RHP Lucas Sims
RHP Buck Farmer
RHP Ian Gibaut
RHP Alexis Diaz
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Nick Martinez
LHP Brent Suter