Reds Beat: 6 Reasons To Think A Playoff Push Could Still Be Possible Post All-Star Break

CINCINNATI — The Reds are getting ready to resume the second half of their season and despite the consistent inconsistency they’ve demonstrated in the first 97 games, there is reason to think they have a chance to make a playoff run. At 47-50, they are tied with San Francisco and three games back of the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League.

They had hopes of at least a 7-3 homestand and a 49-48 mark which would have drastically changed the tenor of their feelings heading into the break. But they went 5-5. Not the end of the world but perfectly symbolic of these 2024 Reds.

That’s just two games over the course of 162 but remember last year, they missed the playoffs by two games and the last team to qualify were the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that made it all the way to the World Series. The World Series champion Texas Rangers collapsed in the final weekend of the season, had to go to Tampa Bay to play a Wild Card round, won both games on the road and rode that momentum to their first World Series title.

But belief is one thing, performance and execution is another.

That’s where the Reds have been lacking at times in the first half, and it’s where we begin with our
outline of a plan to reach the playoffs.

1. Fix the fundamentals:

This team has committed too many mistakes on the basepaths that lead to either rallies dying before they ever get started or ending them before more damage can be done. We saw that against the Tigers twice and once against the Marlins. In all three cases, the Reds lost the game and in two of them, they lost by one run. The Reds are second-worst in MLB in one-run games at 8-18 (CHW 8-19). Houston, which has caught fire, is 7-17 and just one game out of the playoffs. So again, there’s hope.

“I’ve said a bunch of times I like the way we we have responded,” skipper David Bell said. “I think there’s room for us to play better, for sure. But I do like how we responded up like that we’ve stayed true to who we are as a team, and we’re in position to to do everything that we set out to do. We’re not there right now, but we’re in position to do that.

“Of course we want to we want to be perfect. We do. Our players want to be perfect. I want us to be perfect. A big part of that perfection is playing free, playing aggressive, understanding the situations, being focused like I talked about. To get where we’re going like being locked in and dialed in, and on every pitch is… it’s everything. We’re not going to be perfect. So striving for that and when things don’t go exactly the way we want them to, staying tough and staying strong and not being affected by that. Learning from it and being dialed in for that next pitch. That’s baseball.”

2. Navigate (and survive) the July 30 trade deadline:

The Reds could still be sellers at the trade deadline, meaning they could trade away chips vital to the team this year to build a stronger core for the future, like 2025, when they actually have players like Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand from the start of the season. Keep an eye on Alexis Diaz, Fernando Cruz, Jonathan India, Santiago Espinal, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley. Any one of several of those veterans could be appealing to a team looking for a piece or two.

“The communication with the front office is just ongoing every day,” Bell said. “They know exactly where we stand and they’re, you know, Nick (Krall) and Brad (Meador), in particular, around our team a lot. They’re constantly evaluating that. They wouldn’t expect anything less. But I do think that for the job that we have to do, they have to do, believing in the team and the group that we have can accomplish. What we set out to accomplish. This is a really important piece of information right now, for the next next couple of weeks.”

3. Stay dialed in:

The Reds come out of the break with a nine-game trip through Washington, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The goal for the Reds coming out of camp was to win the NL Central. The National League and then reach and win the World Series. They stand eight games behind the Brewers but three games back in the Wild Card. But they have to leapfrog four teams to get there. Totally doable in 65 games but again, consistency.

“No matter what happens, to stay completely focused and in intent on achieving what we know we can achieve, no matter what happens,” Bell told me. “Because there’s going to be more challenges. To me, the schedule, I don’t even (talk about it). It’s always challenging. I don’t no matter who we’re playing, we have to play our best. So that’s that’s always going to be there. Just continuing to stay dialed in every single day on the long term goal, but then one pitch at a time. And that’s it. It’s that simple really because I really believe we can accomplish what we set out to accomplish if our mind is like completely set on, on on accomplishing that. And right now it is.”

4. Grow up fast:

There’s real reason to think these Reds could be great for years to come in 2025 and beyond. But if the ’24 group has any plans for greatness, their young stars will have to grow up fast under the fire of a playoff race. Stars like Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and maybe even Matt McLain (in August) will have to be key players. They will have to carry this team.

“It is a young team, but I don’t consider it an immature team at all,” Bell said. “I feel like for a young team for a group of young players to care as much as they do about winning as a team, this is special to this group. There definitely can be more emphasis put on individual goals when you’re young. You’re trying to survive, and that’s good. We want that like they are players need to want to be the best they can be individually. But to still prioritize what we’re doing as a team, that’s what I’m seeing every day. So, there’s nothing that goes unnoticed. There’s nothing that goes unaddressed. Everything that happens on the field, we’re trying to handle that the best way possible to get better the next pitch or the next day.”

5. Belief in the roster, belief in the message:

David Bell has always been one who believes in the talents of his team rather than five or 10-game trends. One could say that’s why he’s stayed with a guy like Will Benson so long. Benson went through an 0-for-25. Sure, there’s the argument that as decimated as the outfield was by injuries, Bell was left with little choice. But there’s more to it than that. Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India, Luke Maile, Santiago Espinal all went through prolonged droughts in the first half. The players that play for Bell respect him for his consistency and his ability to not bounce all over with his lineups and his use of personnel. All of his players are engaged, and that is worth a ton throughout the course of a season that’s been filled with adversity.

“Individually, collectively, every conversation, the play on the field, the adjustments, (it’s all my responsibility),” Bell told me. “The teaching the coaches do, they’re on top of everything, so it allows me, even though that’s my responsibility, to really focus on on those things because I believe that’s what’s gonna matter in the end.”

Bell is the ultimate messenger of this team. The front office has always believed he has the perfect temperament to handle an MLB roster in 2024 over the course of 162 games. All the Reds have right now is hope with the expectations limited to inside the clubhouse. It’s not a terrible position to be in.

“It’s really all about what you set your mind to,” Bell said. “And as far as our team. I feel that our team is very committed and set on what we’re what our goals are to accomplish. So I feel that we have everything in place and we’re intact. We’re a true team. And we’re positioned to to continue to find ways to get better and achieve the goals we set out and it hasn’t been easy. It never is it’s not going to be any easier. So I like that we’ve gotten stronger through it all as a team.”

6. Out of nowhere:

As we saw with Rece Hinds, a young player who finds lightning in a bottle can energize a team overnight. It’s probably unfair to expect Hinds to continue his scorching pace for any extended period of time but some consistent pop in the lineup could really, really help a club that has struggled at times to put up crooked numbers. Can someone else rise up, either via the system (Rhett Lowder?) or trade to help give the Reds a boost in the final 65? First, the Reds have to prove they’re worthy.

NOTES:

Stuart Fairchild and TJ Friedl:

Both outfielders are expected to return from injuries during the nine-game trip. Fairchild (spine) should be in D.C. on Friday and ready to go. Friedl (hamstring) should be back for the final three games at Tampa Bay.

Luke Maile:

The Reds backup catcher will need a bit more time to recover from the herniated disk in his back. Austin Wynns has proven to be a very reliable backup to the backup. His handling of Hunter Greene in his final start before the All-Star break against Colorado is proof of that.

Recapping 2024 Draft:

The Reds selected 21 players in the 2024 draft. Here are videos of the top three plus director of amateur scouting Joe Katuska.