Kentucky Beat: Keys to the Game, Score Prediction for Sweet 16 matchup vs. Tennessee

INDIANAPOLIS — For the third time this season, and for the first time ever in the NCAA Tournament, Kentucky will be facing their border rival in Tennessee. This is a rivalry that goes back to 1910, but tonight will be the first time these two teams play in the NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky won the first two meetings against Tennessee, both in a span of two weeks, in the regular season. The Wildcats were missing a key player in both matchups, but them finding ways to win both games emboides this team’s resilience and toughness.

That resilience and toughness will need to be on full display tonight against a Volunteers team that is 9-2 since Kentucky beat them on February 11th in Lexington.

Before we look at the Keys to the Game and Score Prediction tonight, let’s look back on the two regular-season games between the Wildcats and Volunteers.

January 28th in Knoxville: Wildcats 78 – Volunteers 73

Playing without Lamont Butler, the Wildcats led for a majority of the night in snapping a two-game losing streak. Jaxson Robinson and Ansley Almonor combined for eight three-pointers, and Koby Brea led all Kentucky scores with 18 points.

The Wildcats were 25-50 from the field overall in this game, including 12-24 from three-point range. Their three-point shooting had a clear impact on the way Tennessee wanted to play this game, for it sped up their pace and caused them to miss 34 of their 45 three-point attempts.

Mark Pope talked a lot about this Wildcats team’s resilience after this game. Kentucky was a double-digit underdog coming into the game, but they found a way to win even without Lamont Butler and Kerr Kriisa. The Wildcats withstood an 11-0 run by the Volunteers to end the first half and came out of halftime to take the lead, a lead the Wildcats never relinquished.

February 11th in Lexington: Wildcats 75 – Volunteers 64

In this game the Wildcats were without Jaxson Robinson, and although Lamont Butler did play, he left the game with 8:40 remaining after reaggravating his injured left shoulder.

But Kentucky dug deep and clamped down on defense to pull out an impressive win over the No. 5 Volunteers. Trailing 60-58 with 4:50 remaining, Kentucky closed the game on a 17-4 run. Koby Brea hit two three-pointers, and Otega Oweh scored five points to help the Wildcats secure the regular-season sweep over the Volunteers.

Butler’s defense on Tennessee’s Zakai Zeigler that night was tremendous. He stole the ball from Zeigler just nine seconds into the game, one of three steals Butler had in the game. Butler added six points, four assists and three rebounds in the win, showing how much of a game-changer he is for the Wildcats. That’s especially true against the Volunteers.

Keys to the Game

1. On-Ball Defense: Lamont Butler’s on-ball defense against Illinois in the Second Round was tremendous. He will have to play at that level against Zakai Zeigler tonight. Zeigler is so good at distributing the ball and driving Tennessee’s offense. It’s going to be crucial for Butler to set the tone defenisvely, just as he did in the second game against the Volunteers in the regular season in February.

2. Rebounding: I say this is a key even though Kentucky winning both games against Tennessee this season despite losing the rebound battle. If the Wildcats are going to beat the Volunteers for a third time this season, they are going to have to win the battle on the boards.

3. Make Big Blue Nation a Factor: Kentucky fans are going to show up this weekend in Indianapolis. Tennessee fans, though, will too. Both fanbases are going to be well-represented tonight. That should create more of a sense of urgency for Kentukcy to make Big Blue Nation the louder of the two fanbases inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

4. Three-Point Shooting: Kentucky shot 12-24 from three-point range in both games against Tennessee in the regular season. Tennessee shot 11-45 and 3-18 from three-point range in both games, respectively, against the Wildcats in the regular season. A similar difference in three-point shooting should be enough for Kentucky to beat Tennessee a third time tonight.

Score Prediction: Wildcats 77 – Volunteers 74
While it may be difficult to beat a team three times in one season, I like Kentucky to do just that tonight. The Wildcats match up well with Tennessee, and I think that will lead to a win and berth in the Elite Eight on Sunday afternoon.