Kentucky Beat: Keys to the Game, Score Prediction for Kentucky’s Second Round Matchup vs. Illinois

This afternoon is going to be a battle. The Kentucky Wildcats have been a resilient team all season, overcoming BOTH injuries and a difficult schedule with a completely revamped roster.

This Wildcats team is a team of warriors. Lamont Butler is playing through an ongoing shoulder injury, Amari Williams is playing through a back injury, and Andrew Carr already played through a back injury earlier this season. Kentucky just keeps on playing through adversity, and they will have to continue that this afternoon against No. 6 seed Illinois.

The Illini are a really good team. They’re big, well-coached, prolific on offense, and ferocious on the glass.

However, playing Troy was good for Kentucky going into this game. Illinois is, essentially, a better version of Troy. The Fighting Illini are really competitive and will rebound the ball. Unlike Troy, Illinois takes care of the ball, but they don’t force a lot of steals.

The Fighting Illini, like Troy, struggles from 3-point range, though you wouldn’t know that from their 12/30 performance Friday night against Xavier, as they are capable of catching fire from deep.

With that, let’s look at the Keys to the Game and my Score Prediction ahead of today’s game.

Keys to the Game

1. Rebounding:

This goes without saying. Illinois averages a ridiculous 42.6 rebounds per game, while allowing just 33.4 rebounds per game. The Fighting Illini are second in the country in rebounding, behind only Alabama, which tells you how good they are on the glass. Amari Williams is going to have another huge game on the boards after having 13 rebounds on Friday night, but Kentucky is going to have to have more than two offensive rebounds today.

2. Make all the easy shots:

When facing a team like Illinois that can score, you must make all the easy shots. Lay-ups, bunny shots, finger rolls, and short floaters all have to go through the net to keep up with the Fighting Illini.

3. On-Ball Defense:

Even though Illinois can struggle from three-point range, the Wildcats have to make it difficult for them to move the ball. Illinois did turn the ball over 14 times on Friday night, so Kentucky’s on-ball defense can lead to steals and getting out in transition. Having Butler in this game to guard Illinois’s best ball-handler is a huge advantage for the Wildcats. Kentucky’s on-ball defense could allow them to play their kind of game today.

4. Make Big Blue Nation a factor:

Illinois is going to bring a lot of fans to the game today, given that they’re only 224 miles from Milwaukee. The Wildcats desperately need to make Big Blue Nation a factor early to take Illinois out of their rhythm. We’ve seen what having a loud Big Blue Nation presence and the impact they can have on a game can do for the Wildcats.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 78, Illinois 76

This game is going to be really close and tightly contested the whole way. Interestingly, this game is taking place 11 years to the date of the Kentucky-Wichita State game. The final score of that game was Wildcats 78, Shockers 76. I believe that will be the final score of today’s game, and Kentucky will go to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.