Kentucky Beat: Keys to the Game, Score Prediction as Kentucky takes on Troy in First Round of NCAA Tournament

Here’s the one thing that makes going into the NCAA Tournament so much fun for the Kentucky Wildcats; there are no great expectations, at least not realistically.

Sure, this Kentucky team should get to the Sweet 16. That’s probably what most of Big Blue Nation is hoping for. But beyond that, to me, would be icing on the cake.

This Kentucky team isn’t expected to get to the Final Four or win a National Championship. Can they? Absolutely, and their seven wins over AP Top 15 teams are proof of that.

The Wildcats will be at their healthiest, given their injury circumstances, going into Friday night’s First Round matchup with the No. 14 seed Troy Trojans. Lamont Butler is expected to play, and his presence will be crucial in so many ways. Butler has played on the NCAA Tournament stage before, most notably hitting a buzzer beater in the 2023 Final Four when he was with San Diego State. Butler is one of eight 1,000-point scorers on this Wildcats team.

Troy is an interesting team. They compete really hard, and they will look to cause chaos on both ends of the floor. Kentucky will need to take care of the ball and take advantage of Troy’s tendency to turn the ball over.

The Trojans are a battle-tested team, having played at Arkansas, Oregon and Houston back in non-conference play this season. They also knocked off James Madison in the Semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament.

In addition, Troy averages 38.6 rebounds per game and allows just 33 rebounds per game.

Where Kentucky can expose Troy is the Trojans subpar three-point shooting. The Trojans shoot just 29.9 percent from three-point range.

Let’s look at Players to Watch on the Troy Trojans ahead of Friday night’s game.

 

Keys to the Game

1. Rebounding: Troy can rebound the ball, and Kentucky is going to have work to do on the glass to win the rebounding battle. Amari Williams is a vital key to this game with his rebounding on both ends of the floor.

2. Force Troy to shoot from three-point range: Troy averages 25.6 three-point attempts per game. Kentucky needs to force Troy to shoot at least 30 three-pointers in this game. Much of that needs to come from getting off to a good start, which will force the Trojans into thinking they need to launch a bunch of three-point shots to get back into the game. Regardless, the Wildcats need to force the Trojans to shoot more three-pointers than they would like.

3. Don’t get caught up in the chaos: Troy averages 13.9 assists and 13.5 turnovers per game this season. So for as many assists as the Trojans dish out per game, they turn the ball over nearly that many times per game. That’s chaos on the floor, and it’s chaos Kentucky can’t get caught up in. Taking care of the ball and getting out in transition will be crucial for Kentucky on Friday night.

4. Make Big Blue Nation a factor: Mark Pope said earlier this week that he would provide gas money to Big Blue Nation as they make their way to Milwaukee this weekend. That gives me confidence the players are going to come out ready to rock Friday night, and I think the Wildcats will blitz Troy at the start. Big Blue Nation will absolutely be a factor if that happens.

Score Prediction: Wildcats 82 – Trojans 68

ESPN Bet has Kentucky listed as an 11.5-point favorite going into Friday night. I think Kentucky can cover that number. Mark Pope feels really confident with what this team is about to do on Friday night. and I echo that confidence. Kentucky will cover and cruise to a First Round win Friday night.