Bengals Beat: Why 12-5 Is A Reasonable Expectation From The Third-Easiest Schedule in 2026

CINCINNATI — The opportunity is right there in front of the Bengals for the 2026 season. Through free agency and trades, their defense been fortified with two new defensive tackles, a defensive edge and two new safeties. In the draft, they were strengthened through the acquisition of the SEC defensive player of the year in 2025 in Cashius Howell, a slender outside corner, two new offensive linemen and a stout defensive tackle.

They have their same high-powered offense back at full throttle and in tact. And now the Bengals get a third-place schedule that is rated as the third-easiest in the NFL.

The question is: Will the Bengals take advantage?

Coming off defensive roster additions like defensive end Boye Mafe, safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Duggar, and a massive trade for All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are positioned to orchestrate a dominant bounce-back campaign. The 17-game slate features unique scheduling quirks, including an incredibly early Week 6 bye, a historic international trip to Madrid, a grueling stretch of late-season division games, and a marquee New Year’s Eve home game. And the Bengals are the only team in the AFC North returning their head coach from a year ago. All of this should lead to the Bengals returning to the top of the AFC North, with a 4-2 mark in the division an expected result.

The Bengals last had a 12-win season in 2022, when they ran the table on the final eight regular season games and won a pair of games in the playoffs. The ’26 schedule offers the Bengals to get back to that level.

This is how they’ll do it:

Week 1: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date & Time: Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Baker Mayfield
The Bengals officially “Open in Orange” at Paycor Stadium, challenging the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in front of an all-orange crowd. This marks the 11th time in Paycor Stadium history that a matchup features two former No. 1 overall draft pick quarterbacks. Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield have historically engaged in high-scoring aerial duels, and this opener promises plenty of offensive fireworks. Cincinnati’s defensive focus will center on disrupting Mayfield’s timing with press coverage from their new safety tandem. Offensively, Burrow will look to test a young Tampa Bay secondary early through vertical routes to Ja’Marr Chase. Starting the season strong at home is paramount for head coach Zac Taylor, who has historically dealt with slow September starts.
WIN

Week 2: at Houston Texans
Date & Time: Sunday, Sept. 20, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Matchup: Orlando Brown Jr. and Amarius Mims vs. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter
The season’s first road test takes Cincinnati to NRG Stadium for a heavyweight conference showdown. Houston’s elite defensive line, deploying a relentless wide-9 alignment under DeMeco Ryans, presents a massive challenge. The outcome hinges entirely on the edge protection from Bengals offensive tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Amarius Mims. Cincinnati’s front line established top-tier consistency late last year, showcasing one of the league’s lowest sack percentages. Burrow must utilize a rapid, rhythmic passing game to target tight end Mike Gesicki and slot receivers over the middle, mitigating Houston’s ferocious perimeter pass rush.
LOSS

Week 3: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Date & Time: Sunday, Sept. 27, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Matchup: Dexter Lawrence II vs. Pittsburgh’s Interior Offensive Line
After facing him twice as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, splitting the games, Zac Taylor takes on Mike McCarthy in his first year as Pittsburgh head coach. Cincinnati travels to Acrisure Stadium for an early, physical AFC North grudge match. Catching the Steelers in September presents a unique schematic advantage. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is expected to experience early growing pains, working around reconstructed guard spots and incoming rookie blocker Max Iheanachor. This provides a premier showcase opportunity for Cincinnati’s prize trade acquisition, defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, to collapse the pocket from the interior. Minimizing the Steelers’ ground game and forcing their passing game into predictable long-yardage scenarios will allow edge rushers like Boye Mafe to pin their ears back.
WIN

Week 4: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Date & Time: Sunday, Oct. 4, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Matchup: Al Golden’s Secondary Schemes vs. Trevor Lawrence
The Bengals return home to host Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. These franchises have produced unforgettable encounters in recent years, often dictated by quarterback precision and defensive turnovers. Defensive coordinator Al Golden will likely employ complex post-snap safety rotations featuring Jordan Battle and Bryan Cook to confuse Jacksonville’s passing progressions. On the other side of the ball, expect a heavy dose of running back Chase Brown out of the backfield to keep the Jaguars’ pass rush honest, opening up play-action deep shots for Tee Higgins later in the game.
LOSS

Week 5: at Miami Dolphins
Date & Time: Sunday, Oct. 11, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Matchup: Cincinnati’s Revamped Secondary vs. Miami’s Track-Star Offense
A high-stakes trip to Hard Rock Stadium wraps up the first leg of the season. The Bengals have enjoyed recent success against the Dolphins, but containing Miami’s world-class team speed remains an exhausting chore. Cincinnati’s secondary will be put to the ultimate test. The game plan requires the defensive line to create quick pressure up the middle without blitzing, allowing seven defenders to drop into deep zones. Protecting Burrow from Miami’s aggressive perimeter blitz packages will be crucial to securing a massive road victory before the break.
WIN

Week 6: BYE WEEK
This marks the earliest bye week in head coach Zac Taylor’s eight-season tenure in Cincinnati. While an early break prevents late-season rest, it provides an invaluable window to self-scout, adjust schematic flaws, and ensure Joe Burrow enters the meat of the schedule perfectly healthy.

Week 7: at Baltimore Ravens
Date & Time: Sunday, Oct. 25, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Matchup: Boye Mafe and Dexter Lawrence II vs. Lamar Jackson
For the first time since 2021, the Bengals avoid a short-week, primetime nightmare assignment in Baltimore. Instead, they travel to M&T Bank Stadium fresh off the bye week for a standard 1:00 p.m. kickoff. This schedule change should provide Cincinnati an immense preparation advantage. Linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt will lead the defensive containment strategy against Lamar Jackson’s dynamic rushing capabilities. Offensively, Burrow will look to attack a physical Ravens secondary using quick-release slant concepts to Ja’Marr Chase, aiming to neutralize Baltimore’s exotic blitz packages. This is the first in the Zac Taylor-Jesse Minter rivalry, as Minter is in his first year as Ravens head coach.
LOSS

Week 8: vs. Tennessee Titans
Date & Time: Sunday, Nov. 1, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Matchup: Bengals Defensive Interior vs. Tennessee’s Power Run Game
Oddly, this is only the Bengals’ third home game of the season despite entering November, making a victory at Paycor Stadium crucial. The Titans always bring an aggressive, physical identity that tests an opponent’s structural discipline. Cincinnati must count on Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen to anchor the A-gaps, halting Tennessee’s inside zone runs and putting the game entirely on their quarterback’s shoulders. Look for Zac Taylor to dial up an aggressive passing script early, using empty backfield sets to force Tennessee out of its heavy defensive personnel.
WIN

Week 9: vs Atlanta Falcons (International Game – Madrid, Spain)
Date & Time: Sunday, Nov. 8, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
The Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Atlanta’s Secondary at Estadio Bernabéu
The Bengals make history by playing their first-ever international game outside of England, traveling to Madrid, Spain to face the Falcons at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, home to Real Madrid. Playing on the global stage brings logistical hurdles, but Joe Burrow gets his wish to showcase his talents internationally. Atlanta boasts a versatile roster, but Cincinnati’s offensive weapons present a logistical nightmare on a fast track. Because the NFL did not grant Cincinnati a post-Europe bye week, managing player hydration, sleep cycles, and travel fatigue will be just as critical as the tactical game plan itself. But the Bengals find a way to post their first-ever win on foreign soil.
WIN

Week 10: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Date & Time: Sunday, Nov. 15, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC – Sunday Night Football)
The Matchup: The Paycor Stadium Crowd vs. Pittsburgh’s Communication
Immediately after returning from Spain, the Bengals enter a marquee primetime game at home against their fiercest rival. It is a brutal scheduling turnaround, but the energy of Sunday Night Football at Paycor Stadium should mask any lingering jet lag. Rivalry games in November are typically won in the trenches. Cincinnati’s offensive line must withstand the relentless edge rushes of T.J. Watt. Expect a heavy dosage of quick screens to Chase Brown and intermediate crossers to Tee Higgins to tire out Pittsburgh’s pass rushers and capitalize on an emotional home crowd.
WIN

Week 11: at Washington Commanders
Date & Time: Monday, Nov. 23, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN – Monday Night Football)
The Matchup: Al Golden vs. Washington’s Mobile Quarterback System
Cincinnati’s primetime tour continues with a trip to Northwest Stadium for Monday Night Football. This cross-conference matchup was generated by the league’s 17-game scheduling formula pitting third-place finishers against each other. Washington relies heavily on an explosive, option-oriented offensive system. Al Golden’s defense will prioritize lane discipline, assignment football, and physical perimeter tackling. With extra rest following the prior Sunday night game, Burrow and the passing offense should find opportunities to exploit Washington’s secondary downfield.
LOSS

Week 12: vs. New Orleans Saints
Date & Time: Sunday, Nov. 29, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Matchup: Ja’Marr Chase vs. New Orleans’ Press-Man Cornerbacks
The Bengals return home to southern Ohio to host the Saints on Thanksgiving weekend. New Orleans historically features a proud, aggressive secondary that prefers to challenge receivers directly at the line of scrimmage. This presents a premier individual showcase for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to win their one-on-one matchups on the outside. If the Saints commit safety help to stop the deep ball, Chase Brown’s versatility as a runner and receiver out of the backfield should allow Cincinnati to control the clock and paint an efficient offensive performance.
WIN

Week 13: at Cleveland Browns
Date & Time: Sunday, Dec. 6, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Matchup: Bengals Offensive Tackles vs. Myles Garrett
Zac Taylor matches up with first-year Browns head coach Todd Monken for the first time since the former Ravens offensive coordinator took over in Cleveland. December kicks off with the first iteration of the Battle of Ohio at Huntington Bank Field. Winning in Cleveland during the winter months requires physical football and supreme ball security. The primary objective for Cincinnati’s offense is neutralized by one man: Myles Garrett. Zac Taylor will likely employ chip-blocking assistance from tight ends and fullbacks to aid Amarius Mims and Orlando Brown Jr.. Keeping Burrow upright in the cold weather will give the Bengals an excellent chance to steal a crucial division road victory.
LOSS

Week 14: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Date & Time: Sunday, Dec. 13, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Patrick Mahomes
The most anticipated home game of the year takes place in the late afternoon window on FOX. Joe Burrow has lost his last two games against Kansas City since winning his first three against Patrick Mahomes, who will be looking to direct the Chiefs back to the top of the AFC West. The Bengals-Chiefs rivalry has evolved into one of the NFL’s premier modern theater pieces. Because Cincinnati finished third in the division, they get the luxury of hosting this game at Paycor Stadium rather than traveling to Arrowhead. The matchup will inevitably come down to whichever elite quarterback commands the final two-minute drive. Cincinnati will rely on its newly constructed, expensive interior defensive front to apply pressure on Mahomes, forcing him to throw on the run while locking down the backend with their deep safety net. This, of course, will be a reunion game for Bengals safety Bryan Cook, who won back-to-back Super Bowls (57 and 58) with the Chiefs.
WIN

Week 15: at Carolina Panthers
Date & Time: Sunday, Dec. 20, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Matchup: Cincinnati’s Pass Rush vs. Carolina’s Protection Schemes
The Bengals head south to Charlotte for their final out-of-state road game of the regular season. On paper, the Panthers represent an opponent Cincinnati should dominate physically. However, late-season road games are always dangerous trap scenarios. Look for defensive end Boye Mafe and the interior tandem of Dexter Lawrence II and Jonathan Allen to overwhelm Carolina’s front early. Securing a multi-score lead in the first half will allow the Bengals to lean on their ground game and protect key starters ahead of the playoff push.
WIN

Week 16: at Indianapolis Colts
Date & Time: Saturday, Dec. 26 or Sunday, Dec. 27, Time TBD
The Matchup: Cincinnati’s Run Defense vs. Indianapolis’ RPO Game
This post-Christmas road trip to Lucas Oil Stadium is a short, easy travel assignment for Cincinnati. Defensively, Colts DC Lou Anarumo gets his first shot at Joe Burrow since taking over the Indy defense in 2025. He’s sure to throw some exotic looks at Burrow, who must solve them quickly to force Anarumo to fall back to a more conventional approach. The Colts run a highly efficient, run-heavy RPO (Run-Pass Option) system that can wear down undisciplined defensive fronts. Cincinnati’s defensive line must maintain interior gap integrity, forcing Indianapolis out of its comfort zone and into obvious passing situations. With the AFC playoff field solidifying, Burrow’s veteran poise indoors should give Cincinnati a distinct execution advantage late in the game.
WIN

Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Date & Time: Thursday, Dec. 31, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video – Thursday Night Football on NYE)
The Matchup: AFC North Championship Implications on New Year’s Eve
Paycor Stadium will play host to a historic New Year’s Eve blockbuster on Thursday Night Football. With massive postseason seedings or the AFC North crown likely on the line, the atmosphere in downtown Cincinnati will be electric. Facing a physical team like Baltimore on a short week is an immense challenge. Winning this game requires explosive plays from Chase and Higgins to bypass the grueling trench warfare. Expect an aggressive game plan from Zac Taylor designed to score early, forcing the Ravens out of their preferred ball-control approach.
WIN

Week 18: vs. Cleveland Browns
Date & Time: Saturday, Jan. 9 or Sunday, Jan. 10, Time TBD
The Matchup: Depth, Adjustments, and Postseason Seeding
The regular season concludes at home against the Browns in a game that could dictate wild card spots or division titles. Because it is a division finale, the NFL leaves the date and time fluid for maximum television drama. Depending on what has already been secured, this matchup could be a high-stakes play-in game or a strategic opportunity to rest vital stars. If the starters are playing, look for Joe Burrow to exploit the middle of Cleveland’s coverage with quick, decisive passing concepts to wrap up the season schedule on an elite note.
WIN