CINCINNATI — Time for the Reds to kick into high gear.
The Reds finished their unofficial first half with a seven-game homestand that was representative of their first half as a whole. That is to say, maddeningly inconsistent. They won four of seven against the combination of Miami and Colorado when a 5-2 or 6-1 mark would’ve been the lowest bar they would hope to clear.
Instead they won just two of five to open before scratching across a pair of nail-biting wins over the hapless Rockies, a team that has been called “one of the worst” in the modern history of the sport.
The Reds are 50-47, just 2.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the National League, 7.5 behind the front-running Cubs in the NL Central. If the Reds were to catch fire, making a run at the top of the division would not be out of the realm of possibility. But there are three issues with this optimism.
First, the Reds have continue to demonstrate an inexplicable ability to post a winning mark against their own division competition in 2025, going 11-15. Flip that and the Reds are in playoff position and certainly a division title run is in the conversation.
Second, they have two other teams to leap before even talking about getting to the Cubs, as the Brewers and Cardinals again are playing playoff-level baseball. Milwaukee is 56-40 and winners of seven straight heading into the break. The Cardinals are a game ahead of the Reds and have a nine-game win streak already on the books in 2025.
Third, the Reds have not been able to post an extended streak of dominant baseball. Yes, they went 14-7 in a 21-game stretch after losing to Milwaukee on June 4. But their longest win streak is five and their longest skid is four. The most they’ve been above .500 is four games, which is also the low-water mark below .500. They are consistently inconsistent.
Reasons for playoff expectations:
1. Terry Francona. The future Hall of Fame manager reached career win 2,000 right before the break. He has a long history of measuring and pacing his club for a second-half run. The 2004 curse-busting team was just 10 games over .500 at the break and finished 50-26 to reach the playoffs and make their historic run. He did it again in 2016 with the Indians, falling a Game 7 shy of his third World Series title.
2. Elly De La Cruz. The shortstop is type of dynamic player that can take over a club for weeks and the team can ride the energy of the 23-year-old superstar. He wants to play every day. He’s the only player to play in all 97 games. He’s much more consistent at the plate, and his numbers have borne that out, slashing .284/.359/.495 with 18 home runs and a team-high 3.6 WAR.
3. Matt McLain. We haven’t seen the best of Matt McLain yet, at least not for an extended period. He’s the prototypical No. 2 hitter ahead of De La Cruz. He’s certainly shown flashes. If he turns it on, the Reds lineup takes on a new dynamic.
4. Pitching. The Reds rotation has held up very well, even with the extended absence of Hunter Greene with a groin issue. All-Star Andrew Abbott leads the way, with Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Nick Martinez poised to carry the staff into the second half. Chase Burns is four starts into his Major League career, already showing great promise. But at 22, it’s wise not to expect him to carry a big league staff at this point, and the Reds will stay away from overexposing him to high leverage spots.
Reasons for a reality check and the understanding that this core group is still a year away:
1. Offense. What we saw before the break is what has driven Reds fans crazy all season – the silence of the bats for extended periods against all types of pitching, but especially left-handed pitching. Hope is not a plan but the hope is the bats will wake up in the hot months.
2. Injuries. This starts with Hunter Greene, who is apparently being left to decide his own fate and being allowed to return only when he feels comfortable, despite tests from the team showing no serious injury at this stage of recovery.
3. Lack of help behind Elly. The Reds simply need more from the likes Austin Hays, Tyler Stephenson, Spencer Steer, Gavin Lux and Noelvi Marte. Hays, who has overcome three IL stints already, whas certainly produced his fair share of moments in the first half and has been – by far – the most consistent. Stephenson has also shown his potential in the No. 4 spot but his average is still .232. Steer has shown signs of really waking up and could be an X factor down the stretch with his power numbers rising. Marte is another X factor candidate, if he can stay on the field.
4. Too much dependence on the bullpen. The bullpen has been one of the strengths of this team in the first half, led by Emilio Pagan and his 20 saves in 40 appearances. The Reds have also gotten solid efforts from Brent Suter, Graham Ashcraft, Tony Santillan and Scott Barlow. Four of the five have already pitched 40 innings with Ashcraft sitting at 39 2/3.
Best guess: If the Reds get through the stretch of the Mets, Nats, Rays and Dodgers heading into the July 31 MLB trade deadline with their roster still intact and don’t sell off, they are talented enough to make a solid run at 90 wins. With Francona as their manager, they have the skipper capable of pushing the right buttons. The Reds return to the playoffs for the first time since 2013 with a mark of 90-72. Feel free to bookmark this – for better or worse – come October.
