Bengals (8-8) at Steelers (10-6) Saturday, Jan. 4 at Acrisure Stadium (natural grass) 8 p.m. ET, TV: WCPO-TV Ch. 9 (Cincinnati), ESPN (National) Joe Buck (PBP), Troy Aikman (Analyst), Lisa Salters (sideline), Russell Yurk (Rules). Radio: Dan Hoard, Dave Lapham. WEBN-FM (102.7 FM), 700-WLW, ESPN1530. National: Westwood One Ted Emrick, Ryan Harris.
CINCINNATI — The Bengals improbable run toward a hopeful playoff spot in the AFC postseason finishes up Saturday night. The question is, will their late-season surge be enough to get them in?
Nearly everything the Bengals needed when they were 4-8 after a 44-38 loss to the Steelers at Paycor on Dec. 1 has fallen their way. But there are three boxes that need checking before the Bengals can plan for a trip to Buffalo and the wild-card round next weekend. They need to win in Pittsburgh Saturday night, they need Aaron Rodgers and the Jets to prevail at MetLife against the Dolphins Sunday and they need Carson Wentz and the Kansas City backups to somehow will themselves to a win over the Broncos in Denver.
Both of the Sunday games the Bengals will watch – if they win Saturday – take place at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. If any of the three games don’t go the Bengals way, they’ll be watching the playoffs for a second straight season.
First things first, they need to beat a Steelers team they haven’t beaten since 2022, losing four of the last five meetings, including the 2022 season opener in overtime, 23-20. The Bengals haven’t beaten the Steelers or Ravens since prevailing over Pittsburgh at Acrisure Stadium, 37-30, in the 2022 rematch of the season opener. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Bengals are 2-9 against the Ravens and Steelers.
It may not be snowing Saturday night in Pittsburgh but it will be cold. Temperatures are expected in the low 20s, falling into the teens throughout the game, with windchills making it feel like 10-above.
Leave it to a former Steeler to put this game in perfect perspective.
“It’s gonna be a bloodbath, man,” Mike Hilton said, before what could be his final game in Bengal stripes. “Two division teams. I’m sure one wants to keep us out of the playoffs, and we’re fighting for a playoff lives. It’s going to be fireworks.”
Two of Cincinnati’s victories during its four-game winning streak have come by a margin of one possession, with the most recent being a 30-24 result over Denver in an overtime thriller in Week 17. The Bengals’ ability to close out tight games as of late has served as a contrast to the first three quarters of the season, as seven of their eight losses were one-score decisions.
The Steelers will know before they take the field if the AFC North is out of reach. The Ravens are huge favorites at home against the Browns. If the Ravens win, they capture the North. But that doesn’t mean the Steelers are playing for nothing. With a win, they would wrap up the No. 5 seed and a trip to No. 4 seed and AFC South winner Houston in the first round. If they lose and the Chargers win Sunday against the Raiders, they are headed to Baltimore and a first-round matchup against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The incentive to win is there for the Steelers.
Bengals coach Zac Taylor has seen the Bengals take advantage of teams with losing records over the first three wins over the four-game win streak. Then finally, last week, the Bengals beat a team with a winning record to keep their hopes alive.
“We’ve known we’ve had a good football team all along,” Taylor said. “Those games are disappointing that we came up short. It didn’t change our process. It didn’t change what our guys believed in. We didn’t have to change everything we did. We still believed in what we were doing. Now we’ve won four in a row, and we’ve got to make it five in a row.”
The finish to last Saturday’s game against Denver tested the Bengals in all three phases as they staved off elimination. After Joe Burrow gave Cincinnati the lead on a one-yard sneak with 1:29 remaining in regulation, the Broncos drove down the field and tied it with a desperation heave to the end zone on fourth down. The Bengals’ defense responded in the overtime period, forcing a three-and-out on Denver’s first possession to put the ball back in Burrow’s hands. Burrow completed three straight passes to move the offense deep into Broncos territory, but Cade York’s field goal 33-yard attempt to win the game hit the left upright and the back-and-forth affair continued.
Cincinnati’s defense bowed up once again, forcing another punt that left 2:20 on the overtime clock for Burrow to operate. The NFL leader in nearly every passing category this season finished the night on his own terms, as he hit Tee Higgins in stride for a 31-yard gain to set up first-and-goal, then connected with Higgins again on the next play for the game-winning score.
Burrow’s final stat line included 39 completions on 49 attempts (79.6 percent) for 412 yards and three TDs, along with the one rushing score. He enters Week 18 pacing all quarterbacks in completions (423), passing yards (4641) and TD passes (42), while his 109.3 passer rating ranks third league-wide.
“I don’t know that anybody can stand on the field and watch Joe Burrow and say he’s not the best player in the world,” Taylor said. “You can transfer that argument to Ja’Marr Chase as well, and you can argue those two to death. But the clearest thing I can say is I would not trade Joe Burrow for any player in the universe.”
Chase, who caught nine of Burrow’s passes for 102 yards against Denver, has nearly re-written the Bengals’ single-season receiving record book. He has notched career highs this season in receptions (117; team record), receiving yards (1612; team record) and receiving TDs (16; one shy of team record).
Chase also leads the NFL in each of those categories, and has a chance to become the fifth player since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger to complete the receiving “Triple Crown.”
While not quite as dramatic or impressive, recovering from 4-8 to a playoff berth would remind many older Bengals fans of the turnaround the 1970 team pulled off. That team opened 1-6, including a Monday night loss in Pittsburgh that dropped them to 1-6, before winning seven straight games to finish 8-6 and capture their first-ever playoff berth by capturing the AFC Central division title.
Adding to the potential history of this run is the fact that no other team since the 1970 NFL merger has played in five road primetime games. This means that more than half of their road trips concluded with the team returning home to Cincinnati in the early morning hours the next day. In all the Bengals are 2-2 in their previous four road primetime games, with wins over the Giants and Cowboys and losses to the Ravens and Chargers. The Bengals lost their only home primetime game to Washington in Week 3.
The only team to previously play five such road games in a season was the 1963 Oakland Raiders, when they competed in the American Football League. A win against their AFC North Division rival this week would complete the Bengals’ fourth consecutive regular season with a record above .500.
Pittsburgh has dropped its last three games all by double digits, with the most recent being a 29-10 home loss to Kansas City on Christmas Day.
The Steelers lead 71-39 overall (including 2-0 in postseason). The two postseason games both were Steelers wins in Wild Card round contests at Paycor Stadium, after the 2005 and ’15 seasons. The Bengals have played more games against the Steelers (110) than any other foe. Cleveland is second in that category at 103, and Tennessee (formerly Houston Oilers) is third at 80.
Here’s what to look for:
- When the Bengals have the ball:
Joe Burrow is legitimately in NFL MVP conversation because of his record-setting streak of eight games with at least three touchdown passes and at least 250 yards passing. His eight straight games of at least three TD passes is just two shy of Tom Brady’s mark of 10 set in 2007. Burrow has readily admitted this week that he accepts the fact that someone on the Steelers defense is probably going to make a freakishly great play and create at least one turnover. But he says that won’t stop him from being aggressive. The last time these two met, Burrow nearly brought the Bengals back from a 41-24 hole midway through the fourth quarter, only to fall 44-38. Ja’Marr Chase needs one TD to tie Carl Pickens’ franchise mark of 17 set in 1995. Burrow also acknowledged that he’ll do everything within reason to make sure Chase is just the fifth receiver since the NFL merger to accomplish the receiving “Triple Crown” by leading the NFL in catches, receiving yards and TDs. The Bengals offensive line is the critical place to look in this game as right tackle Amarius Mims (right hand) and running back Chase Brown (right ankle) are game-time decisions. Both are expected to give it a run but if Mims can’t go, then Cody Ford gets the call at right tackle with Orlando Brown Jr. playing with a broken bone in his right leg. Cordell Volson moves to left guard if Mims can’t go. Tee Higgins drew four penalties on corner Joey Porter Jr. the last time they met.
- When the Steelers have the ball:
The Bengals allowed 10 plays of at least 20 yards when the two teams met on Dec. 1. Russell Wilson had 412 yards passing and three TDs and the Steelers ran up 520 yards of total offense. Obviously, that can’t happen again. The Bengals must wrap up on a bitterly cold night in Pittsburgh and they can’t let George Pickens get behind the defense the way he did in the first game and the way Denver’s Marvin Mims Jr. did last Saturday. The Bengals defense has played better of late, thanks in part to circumstances. The Bengals played Will Levis and Mason Rudolph in Tennessee, Dorian Thompson-Robinson of Cleveland and then last week, contained Bo Nix, who played it very conservatively in the overtime, allowing Lou Anarumo to send pressure to ensure they didn’t get a chance to run out the clock.
- Bottom Line:
Bengals have answered the call in the last four tests presented them. They have Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. If Chase Brown is healthy enough, then the Bengals should have enough to put points on the board. They Bengals lost the last game because they couldn’t handle Russell Wilson. This time, the defense is playing at least respectably. That should be enough to walk out of Pittsburgh with a win against a team that’s reeling and make Sunday football worth watching. The season has been interesting for the last three weeks. What’s one more day?
Bengals 24, Steelers 17
